Retirement Confidence Just Hit a Nine-Year Low. Should Yours?

Every year for 36 years, EBRI has asked Americans one deceptively simple question: are you confident you'll have enough money to live comfortably through retirement? In 2026, the answer hit its lowest point in nearly a decade. Just 64% of Americans say yes — and the decline showed up on both sides of the retirement line.

What's driving it

• Everyday costs are crowding out the future. Nearly six in ten workers say health-care costs are hurting their ability to save; housing and inflation compound it. Emergency readiness slipped too — fewer than three in five workers could cover a surprise expense, down from 64% a year ago.
• Debt is doing real damage. 65% of workers call debt a problem, half carry credit-card balances, and nearly one in three owes more than $25,000 beyond their mortgage.
• Trust in the system is eroding. Four in five workers and seven in ten retirees worry the government will change the retirement system; only about half of workers are confident Social Security and Medicare will deliver equal-value benefits in the future.

The gap nobody plans for

Buried in the survey is the finding we think matters most. Workers increasingly say they'll simply work longer — 39% now expect to retire at 70 or later, or never. But among people who have actually retired, only 10% made it that far. The median worker plans to retire at 65; the median retiree actually left at 62, and nearly half retired earlier than planned — health, layoffs, and caregiving rarely consult your spreadsheet.

"Working longer" is a hope, not a plan. A real plan still works if the paychecks stop three years early.

The confidence that's earned

Here's the survey's quiet good news: confidence tracks planning, not just balances. Yet more than two in five workers say they don't know where to turn for retirement guidance — while about four in ten Americans work with a financial advisor, and most who don't expect to eventually. Confidence built on a written plan — one that's been stress-tested against early retirement, benefit changes, and bad market timing — behaves very differently from confidence built on hoping.